EB-2 NIW Latest Refusal Rates: What Applicants Need to Know

The EB-2 National Interest Waiver (NIW) has long been a sought-after U.S. immigration pathway for professionals whose work benefits the United States. However, recent data suggests a significant shift in approval and refusal trends. This article reviews the latest 2025 insights, highlighting overall approval rates, country-specific trends, and occupation categories most affected by denials.

Understanding the EB-2 NIW

The EB-2 NIW allows eligible applicants to bypass the labour market test (PERM) if they can prove their work is in the national interest of the United States. Applicants must satisfy the Matter of Dhanasar criteria, which involve demonstrating the national importance of their work, their ability to advance the proposed endeavour, and that it would benefit the U.S. to waive the job offer and labour certification requirements.

For a complete breakdown of EB-2 NIW eligibility and requirements, see our guide on US immigration options for skilled professionals

1. Overall Approval and Refusal Trends in 2025

While the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has not yet released full-year FY2025 data, early quarterly statistics show a continuation of the stricter adjudication trend seen in 2024.

Key Insight:

In FY2021–2022, EB-2 NIW approval rates were often above 90%. By FY2024, they dropped to around 43%. Early FY2025 data suggests denials are rising even further.

Countries Experiencing the Highest EB-2 NIW Activity

Although USCIS does not publish NIW-specific denial rates by nationality, U.S. Department of State immigrant visa statistics for EB-2 cases indicate which countries dominate the category.

These numbers include all EB-2 subcategories (not NIW-only) but indicate where the majority of EB-2 demand, and thus NIW filings, originate.

Occupation Categories and Denial Patterns

USCIS does not release EB-2 NIW approval/denial rates by occupation. However, based on policy guidance and stakeholder reports:

STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) continue to receive priority under USCIS policy. Healthcare professionals, particularly physicians serving underserved U.S. communities, remain strong candidates.

Entrepreneurs can succeed under NIW if demonstrating national-level impact and scalability.

Non-STEM applicants may be facing higher scrutiny, as their cases often require more substantial evidence to meet the national importance threshold.

For related insights, read our article on building a strong EB-2 NIW case.

4. Why the Increase in Denials?

Several factors are driving the rise in refusal rates:

• Surge in Applications – NIW petitions increased from ~22,000 in FY2022 to over 63,000 in FY2024.
• Policy Tightening – USCIS’s January 2025 policy update reinforces stricter application of the Matter of Dhanasar criteria.
• Backlogs – Higher filing volumes mean longer processing times and delayed adjudications.

Key Takeaways for 2025 Applicants

• Expect more scrutiny. Supporting evidence must be thorough and directly linked to the national interest.
• STEM and healthcare fields remain favourable under the current policy focus.
• Applicants from high-demand countries such as China and India may face additional delays due to visa backlogs, though NIW is exempt from the PERM process.
• Early and strategic filing is essential to avoid issues with USCIS’s evolving adjudication standards.

Final Thought:

The EB-2 NIW remains a viable pathway, but 2025 trends make clear that quality of evidence, strategic case framing, and precise compliance with legal requirements are more critical than ever.

References:

• USCIS I-140 Petition Data (FY2024 & Q1 FY2025)
• U.S. Department of State, Immigrant Visa Statistics (FY2024)
• USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 6: Immigrants (January 2025 Update)

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