USCIS has not published a reason for the drop, so no one outside the agency can state a single cause. The facts we can check are that the approved share fell from 71.0 percent in FY2024 to 55.2 percent in FY2025, while filings stayed high and USCIS issued new NIW guidance on 15 January 2025 (USCIS, Sep 2026; USCIS Policy Alert PA-2025-03).
This page separates what the data shows from what people guess, so you can plan on facts.
What do the numbers show?
- Filings stayed high: USCIS received 63,549 NIW petitions in FY2024 and 66,276 in FY2025.
- Approvals fell: approvals dropped from 27,526 to 19,532, and denials rose from 11,256 to 15,863.
- The low point came late: in FY2025 Q4, USCIS denied 5,356 petitions and approved 2,968.
- A partial recovery followed: the approved share was 55.3 percent in FY2026 Q3.
See the full year and quarter tables in our main approval rate post.
What changed in the guidance?
On 15 January 2025, USCIS clarified its Policy Manual. It said you must first show you qualify for EB-2, added examples of national importance, explained how letters and business plans are weighed, and stated that not every entrepreneur qualifies (USCIS Policy Alert PA-2025-03). Read the details in our post on the January 2025 policy update.
The guidance and the lower rate arrived in the same period, but the data does not prove one caused the other.
What can you do about it?
You cannot change the average. You can change your own file.
Step 1: Prove your EB-2 base first.
Step 2: Name one specific endeavor with benefit beyond one employer.
Step 3: Show progress with documents, not only a plan. See prong 2.
Step 4: Use letters with specific examples. See what strong letters contain.
Step 5: Compare other routes if your file is thin. See EB-1A vs EB-2 NIW.
If you are also weighing Canada, check your score on the Express Entry CRS calculator.
Frequently asked questions
Why did the NIW approval rate drop?
USCIS has not given a reason. The data shows a fall from 71.0 percent in FY2024 to 55.2 percent in FY2025, and USCIS clarified its NIW guidance in January 2025 (USCIS).
Did the January 2025 policy update cause it?
The data does not prove that. The update and the lower rate arrived in the same period, and no source states a cause.
Is the rate still falling?
The approved share was 55.3 percent in FY2026 Q3, up from 35.7 percent in FY2025 Q4 (USCIS, Sep 2026).
Should I still file an NIW?
It depends on your record and your endeavor. Test your file against the three prongs, and compare other routes.
Where can I see the numbers?
Our main approval rate post has the full tables, taken from USCIS counts.
Where to go from here
To talk through your own case, Book a Strategy Consultation, or start with the U.S. route finder.
Last updated: 15 October 2026.
Amir Ismail leads Amir Ismail & Associates, which has guided clients since 1991 and works with independent U.S. immigration attorneys. AIA is not a law firm. Legal advice and filings are handled by the attorney.
